Hoping to becoming a modern-day Cassandra, with all the attendant rewards, I offer these predictions. Risky though they seem.

• Obama will veer even further to the right as the election season progresses. Circumstance will both “force” and allow him to. His understanding of the situation is that the more of the spectrum he encompasses and the larger his consensus, the better off the nation becomes. It’s a common confusion, self and state.
• A large contingent of American troops, 50,000 or more, will be removed from Iraq. Two-thirds will be re-posted to Afghanistan; the rest will get a parade or some other showy welcome-home. This will be a Rovian attempt to undercut the anti-war argument, but it will be perceived, accurately, as proof that we could have left any time we wanted to.
• The price of gasoline will drop by at least a dollar between now and the election. After Obama’s election it will go back up.
• McCain will self-destruct on the average of once a week between now and November. Occasionally these moments will be reported by the traditional media; more often, they’ll be considered part of the horse race.
• Obama will win big in November, in large part because lots of young first-time voters will turn out for him. Most of these are worshippers rather than supporters. As a result, once he turns out not to be anything like the person they’ve imagined, they’ll split into two main groups. The disillusioned will give up on politics on the theory that it can’t change anything (which is true if you consider politics and the DLC to be synonymous). The true believers will prefer denial, supporting his continuation of both wars, lack of universal health care, increasing the size of the military, and so on. They’ll claim these things aren’t what they seem.

In the end, our only hope for progress is to elect so many progressive folks to Congress that they force Obama’s hand. I’m optimistic because I choose to be.