Well, I scored one trifecta outta two. Almost had the other one, but Ron Paul screwed me. I thought his momentum was a lot greater than it turned out to be. And Fred Thompson? I thought he’d gradually stopped caring enough to breathe, and been carted out the door. (Who is Thompson’s constituency, right-wing L&O fans?) McCain, of course, I kinda predicted.
The CW appears to be that Obama’s Mo will carry through into New Hampshire but Huckabee’s won’t. Having lived in New Hampshire, I can testify that it’s not nearly as heavily evangelical as Iowa, and from what I read it’s become even less so since I moved away. So Huck’s Southern charm might be wasted there. But then there’s South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, and the rest of the crumbling Republican coalition, where, as digby observed, Huckabee’s the only Republican whose constituency is excited about him.
Of course that wouldn’t matter to Mike Bloomberg, whose bank account is his base, and it always loves him.
But it seems increasingly that the Republican nomination process is going to be guided by Huckabee, somewhat in the same manner that the Democratic issues have been framed by Edwards. On nearly all the big issues for Democrats, the top candidates are farther left because of Edwards’s positions. In a similar fashion, the non-Baptist ministers among the Republican candidates may be forced to consider including some populist themes in their stump speeches. I’m looking forward to Mitt’s latest incarnation. Will he be a cowboy? A NASCAR driver? A farmer? How will Rudy manage to connect populist religion with 9/11? And will Thompson bring back his pickup-truck whistlestops? Where are the Ringling Brothers when we need them? (Shoutout to all those New College folks enjoying the use of the Ringling mansion; I sure did!)
Populism, of course, is a method, not an ideology. But tell that to the WSJ. David Sanders, opining that “no one has articulated the message of the religious left more effectively than Mr. Huckabee”, says:
In August, he told a group of Washington reporters that the application of his faith to politics must include concerns for the environment, poverty and hunger. “It can’t just be about abortions and same-sex marriage,” he said. “We can’t ignore that there are kids every day in this country that literally don’t have enough food and adequate drinking water in America.”As governor, he championed the ARKids First, which extended free health insurance not only to children of the working poor but to some lower middle-class families. He pleased teachers unions with his consistent opposition to school choice and voucher programs. He satisfied labor by signing into law a minimum-wage hike of 21%. “Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me” — Mr. Huckabee’s oft-cited scriptural justification for growing government — proved costly for Arkansans, who saw government spending double and their taxes rise about a half-billion dollars during his tenure.
It’s unlikely that Mr. Huckabee, as president, would be able to shepherd a federal marriage amendment through the House, the Senate and the state legislatures, but signing into law a cap-and-trade system ostensibly aimed at limiting global warming (something he has called a “moral issue”) would be much easier. If he wanted to push protectionist “fair trade” policies and a greater federal government role in health care, a Democratic Congress would be more than willing to let him live out his faith on the taxpayers’ dime.
Can you imagine anything worse than that?
BTW, my May prediction about Obama’s success looks pretty good so far.
[ UPDATE: And if a cap-and-trade system is only “ostensibly” about reducing global warming, what is the esoteric meaning? Is it basically a Communist plot to sap the precious fluids of our entreprenurial bodies? ]
The religious left will have difficulty backing Huckabee until he admits that the Earth is at least 5,000 years old.
Posted by: Joyful Alternative on January 5, 2008 6:03 AMOh, he can deal with that problem hands down. "Most conservative groups within Christianity still follow the estimate of Dr. John Lightfoot, a 17th century Anglican clergyman. He estimated that creation occurred during 4004 BCE. Bishop James Ussher in the 17th century made the same estimate a decade later, and got almost all the credit."
6011 years. What's the next question?
Posted by: Buck on January 5, 2008 8:48 AMIn the past this blog has addressed the subject of father/son relationships and how those relationships influence behavior.
It's pretty early to be putting Obama on the couch, but I would be interested in reading your thoughts.
Thanks!
Posted by: susan on January 6, 2008 2:15 PMObama hardly seems to have had a father at all, except in the biological sense. Beyond that I have nothing to go on.
My general suspicion, though, is that mothers are the most important figures in forming the sort of peculiar human specimen who is able and willing to become president. (I except Dubya from this; although he seems to be the product of family dynamics common to many other presidents, he didn't spend most of his life in the pursuit of the White House and his ascension to it was more or less accidental. Ford, too, was accidental.)
Presidential fathers tend to be stern, or remote, or absent, or ne'er-do-wells. Unsatisfactory, that is, in some way. The fathers of Clinton, Nixon, Kennedy, Johnson, Reagan, and Bush I all fit this pattern. I don't know anything about Truman, Eisenhower and Roosevelt in this regard.
The mothers have tended to be extraordinary strong and resilient women -- often allied with their sons against the distant, absent or (sometimes) cheating father.
Obviously there are exceptions and differing degrees in each case, but the overall pattern seems suggestive. I've read practically nothing about Obama's mother, but apparently she was strong enough to pick herself up after a huge early blunder and proceed to carve out a successful life for herself and her son. Obama was born in 1961 while the desegregation battles were still raging. Not an easy time to be the single mother of a biracial child. I would guess that she's one tough lady.
Posted by: Jerry Doolittle on January 6, 2008 4:26 PMThanks, Jerry. I think he is on the way to becoming our president. I hope that he has a strong, stable core to draw upon.
Posted by: susan on January 7, 2008 12:50 AM